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Right now,Watch Secret Sessions Online it's poised to be a potent Atlantic hurricane season.

Though the Atlantic cyclone season begins in June and usually doesn't ramp up until August, environmental conditions in the ocean currently point to an above-normal season, meaning more storms. A number of storm researchers at different universities and forecasting groups have predicted an active season, including meteorologists at Colorado State University, Penn State University, and the University of Arizona, among others.

"The consensus is an above-average season is coming up," said Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University whose group predicts 16 named storms and eight Atlantic hurricanes this year. (There were 18 named storms — meaning they reached sustained winds of at least 39 mph — in 2019.)

A normal Atlantic hurricane season produces around 12 storms and six hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The likelihood of more cyclones means boosted odds of storms hitting land, and communities. "In general, more active hurricane seasons have more landing hurricanes,"Klotzbach said.

Importantly, these early forecasts can change as weather conditions shift in the coming months. And, not least, it doesn't really matter if the hurricane forecast is very active, normal, or below average: Anyone living in hurricane country should be prepared for a violent storm. After all, it only takes one major hurricane, not the threat of many, to cause a catastrophic season.

"In 1992 there was only one major hurricane, but it was Hurricane Andrew," recalled Klotzbach, referencing the deadly tropical storm that slammed into Florida, left some 250,000 people temporarily homeless, and was at the time the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history.

Though hurricane scientists acknowledge these early forecasts can sometimes be off the mark, the predictions can serve as annual wake-up calls, months before the first storms start brewing in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

"This keeps it on people's radars," said Falko Judt, a research meteorologist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

There are two primary factors influencing the 2020 hurricane forecasts:

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1. Warm ocean temperatures

Hurricanes thrive on warm sea surface temperatures. Warmer oceans evaporate water into the air, giving storms energy and moisture to intensify. (High up in hurricane thunderstorms, evaporated water vapor condenses into both liquid and ice particles, releasing energy that hurricanes convert to strong winds). 

"The ocean surface in the Atlantic is pretty warm right now," noted Judt. So unless these waters are stirred up and cooled off, perhaps by the region's strong trade winds, the oceans are more likely to fuel vigorous storms.

"With warmer surface temperatures, there's a greater tendency for stronger storms," said Judt.

The Atlantic, however, isn't the only ocean that's relatively warm right now. The above-average temperatures in many oceans around the globe are a global warming signal, Judt noted. The seas soak up over 90 percent of the amassing heat humans trap on Earth, resulting in relentlessly warming oceans.

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean. Credit: climate reanalyzer / university of maine Above-average ocean temperatures globally. Credit: noaa

2. Low odds of an El Niño

The Pacific Ocean has a significant influence on the Atlantic hurricane season. When sea surface temperatures over big swathes of the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average — an event called El Niño — an important result is strong east-driving winds that pummel Atlantic hurricanes.

"El Niño is our friend for hurricanes," said Klotzbach. The resulting winds commonly rip through the Caribbean. "It shears or tears apart storms," he added.

This year, there's no sign of an El Niño. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects "neutral" conditions, meaning ocean temperatures are near average, and certainly not significantly warmer than usual. Developing hurricanes in the Atlantic, then, may not be threatened by fierce easterly winds, born over the Pacific Ocean.

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In the Atlantic Ocean basin this year, the University of Arizona expects 19 storms and 10 hurricanes, Accuweather predicts 14 to 18 storms and seven to nine hurricanes, and Penn State University's best forecast is for 20 storms.

The Penn State prediction, updated on Monday, is largely driven by the same two primary factors mentioned above. There is "anomalous warmth" in the area where many Atlantic hurricanes form and unfavorable conditions for hurricane-shredding, El Niño-induced winds in the Caribbean, explained Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University.

"There is no question that the main factor driving this forecast — extreme warmth in the tropical Atlantic — is favoredby human-caused climate change," said Mann. Recent research shows warmer oceans have played a dominant role in stoking potent Atlantic hurricanes.

Obviously, 2020 is a terrible year for hurricanes to strike land — or, at least, have boosted odds of striking land. The historic coronavirus pandemic leaves emergency and disaster relief overtaxed and threatened with exposure to a pernicious pathogen that has no treatments or vaccines.

"A bad hurricane season could easily push vulnerable east coast and gulf coast states over the limit," said Mann. "It’s a reminder of how climate change heightens other forms of threat and limits our ability to cope with other disasters."