If you live in the Mid-Atlantic and The Pursuit of LustNortheast, get ready for an acute case of weather whiplash.
On Wednesday in Washington, D.C., a 117-year-old temperature record was broken as temperatures surged past 70 degrees, which is nearly unheard of for early February. This came on the heels of a record warm Tuesday.
The D.C. warmup up comes courtesy of a push of mild air north ahead of an advancing cold front.
And that cold front will be a doozy.
SEE ALSO: Fierce North Atlantic storm to send temperatures soaring at North Pole (again)On Thursday, a low pressure area will form along the front and rapidly intensify, sending temperatures crashing and snow flying in D.C. and many other areas experiencing mild, sunny weather today.
So, how is it possible to go from one extreme to the next, in such a short period of time?
While this isn't an everyday occurrence, such shocking shifts in weather conditions do occur with some frequency in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, especially in the fall and spring.
But this is midwinter, which makes it more remarkable.
From Philadelphia to Boston, up to a foot of snow could accumulate between late Wednesday night and the end of the day on Thursday. The National Weather Service has even issued blizzard warnings related to this storm from southeastern Massachusetts to Long Island. If this does happen, it would be the biggest Northeast snowstorm all winter for many locations.
The winter so far has brought powerful, drought-busting rain and snowstorms to the West Coast, but broad-scale weather patterns have permitted only brief shots of cold air and snowfall to affect the Northeast.
There are two main players in this epic tale of weather whiplash: an atmospheric disturbance riding along the jet stream out of Canada and a cold front sagging southeast with time, which is forecast to pass by the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in time to turn rain to snow all the way to coastal areas.
The front may make a stealthy appearance Wednesday though, passing through the Boston to Washington corridor by the end of the day, but not turning the air sharply colder until most people have returned home for the night.
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Temperatures will plummet by up to 30 or 40 degrees Fahrenheit between Wednesday and Thursday, and this drop, combined with the storm that could bring snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour or more in some spots, is going to make for an epic case of, "You've got to be f***ing kidding me" when commuters attempt to head to work on Thursday.
The storm that will spin up along the front is projected to undergo a period of rapid intensification known as "bombogenesis," in which the air pressure at the center of the storm will drop by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours.
This storm is likely to exceed that intensification rate, with its minimum central pressure, which is an indication of its intensity, dropping to 971 millibars by late on Thursday or early Friday. In general, the lower the pressure, the stronger the storm.
Definition of "bomb" cyclone is deepening rate (normalized by sine of latitude) of 24 mb in 24 hours. 999 mb --> 971 mb ✔ pic.twitter.com/cjXrY2v6BU
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) February 8, 2017
Computer models have trended slightly more bullish with snowfall amounts in the big cities, with 6 to 10 inches forecast for New York, and 8 to 12 inches for the Boston metro area.
Forecasts and winter storm warnings have already been issued, but weather services are up against deeply-ingrained human nature when it comes to the people they're trying to protect with these warnings.
People tend to assume that the weather one day will be similar to the weather the previous day, and therefore, they won't take necessary precautions to shield themselves from inclement weather. However, if folks don't heed these warnings, people in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Thursday will be in for a harsh wakeup call.
In some ways, this is what makes weather great: It can be 60 degrees and sunny in New York one day and 30 degrees and near-blizzard conditions the next.
But this makes for a significant communications challenge, which the National Weather Service and private sector forecasters are working to figure out using social science research.
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